Trade

Mexico’s Trumpian populist could mean trouble for Donald Trump

MEXICO CITY — Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s campaign rhetoric can make him sound like a Mexican Donald Trump.

The left-leaning front-runner in Mexico’s presidential race is overtly nationalistic, pushes “Mexican people first” policies and peppers his speeches with anti-establishment slogans that thrill the working-class Mexicans who flock to his rallies.

But while his style might be distinctly Trumpian, his policy prescriptions could not be more different. Indeed, the election of the former mayor of Mexico City could be disastrous for Trump and his administration, creating an even more charged relationship between the two countries that could reduce cooperation on border security, trade and immigration.

That worries U.S. politicians and business leaders, including House Homeland Security Chairman Michael McCaul, who was not shy about expressing his disdain for López Obrador at an event last fall hosted by the U.S.-Mexico Chamber of Commerce.

U.S. Representative Michael McCaul, chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee | Drew Angerer/Getty Images

“I do not want to see President [López] Obrador take office next year,” McCaul said, adding he fears the Trump administration could increase those chances if it mishandles talks on revamping the 24-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada.

McCaul and others fret that Trump himself could help put López Obrador over the top by following through on his threat to pull out of NAFTA — a development likely to produce more voter frustration that López Obrador could capitalize on.

“It worries me if NAFTA is not done correctly that we’ll be handing a candidate, a socialist candidate like that, the presidency of Mexico,” the Texas Republican said. “And I think that would be the biggest mistake we could possibly do.”

Right now, negotiators for the three nations are striving to reach a deal by the end of March, motivated by the desire to avoid the having every detail of the talks become a political weapon during the last weeks of Mexico’s presidential campaign. And regardless of whether a new NAFTA agreement is negotiated before the July 1 election, the next Mexican president will set the tone for the next years of U.S.-Mexico relations.

López Obrador, 64, who goes by the nickname AMLO, has made his biggest headlines in the U.S. by being a fiery opponent of Trump’s critical rhetoric about Mexico. But Trump still has the opportunity to smooth over the bad feelings, U.S.-Mexico experts say.

“I say it’s more in Trump’s hands as to what happens with the relationship, than it is in Mexican hands. … Because I think there’s a predisposition to want to strengthen and improve the relationship with the United States,” Jim Jones, former U.S. ambassador to Mexico in the Clinton administration, told POLITICO. “But if they are so insulted and denigrated, the Mexican people will react and the Mexican politicians will react in favor of the Mexican voters.”

To help his working class base, AMLO knows “he’s got to create wealth,” Jones said. “And to create wealth, he’s got to attract business. Truly, he has to try to maintain cordial relations with the United States.”

That focus on maintaining better ties with the U.S. came through in the recently released 2018-24 platform from López Obrador’s Morena party, which rather unexpectedly praised NAFTA as “a demonstrated useful instrument for the development of economic and commercial relations with the U.S. and Canada.”

“He certainly hasn’t been a champion or enthusiast for NAFTA, but eliminating it is not a politically smart way to proceed as well, and he knows that,” said Michael Shifter, president of Inter-American Dialogue, adding that López Obrador often has emphasized social development and protecting poor people in regards to NAFTA.

The Morena party platform recognizes that the trade pact has benefited the auto and electronics industries, but argues it has left out small- and medium-size businesses, which make up the majority of the Mexican private sector, from supply chains.

NAFTA has indeed helped shape Mexico’s economy. Trade has increased rapidly, as the share of exports in Mexico’s GDP jumped from 8.5 percent in 1993, before the treaty went into effect, to about 37 percent in 2013, according to Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography. Mexico’s GDP growth rate, however, has fluctuated significantly since the trade deal was enacted, and only in recent years has been at a consistent 2 to 2.5 percent, according to World Bank figures.

Still, López Obrador and members of Morena have been vocal about expanding their trade partnerships with countries like China — a stance largely is in line with the priorities of current Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto.

Mexico already has 10 free-trade agreements with 45 countries, 32 reciprocal investment promotion and protection agreements with 33 countries and nine other trade agreements within Latin America, according to ProMéxico, the country’s trade and investment arm.

Political scientists credit AMLO’s rise this election cycle mostly to his attacks on Mexico’s political class and its ineffectual leadership. His third candidacy comes amid growing outcry against state corruption and dissatisfaction with Peña Nieto’s administration and his Institutional Revolutionary Party, known in Spanish by the acronym PRI, as violence and corruption have escalated. Labor rights advocates say that although Mexico’s economy has expanded in the past 20 years, wages are still low and the working class has little upward mobility.

“The anger against the political class is much stronger now than it was in previous elections,” Shifter said. When Peña Nieto was elected, there was hope the PRI party “would be transformed. There’s been widespread disappointment and [López Obrador] has been able to capitalize on that.”

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, leader of the Morena party, waves after registering himself as a pre-candidate for Mexico’s presidential election in July, in Mexico City, on December 12, 2017 | Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images

AMLO also has the advantage of not needing to sway a majority of Mexican voters. The next president may win with just a plurality of votes because of many third-party candidates. That makes it possible that the next Mexican president could be win with under 30 percent of the vote because Mexico has no runoff system.

Public sentiment supports López Obrador’s push against corruption. He calls the “fight against the mafia of power” the central theme of his campaign.

Only 17 percent of Mexicans trust Peña Nieto’s administration, according to a 2017 survey by public research nonprofit Latinobarómetro. Nine out of 10 Mexicans believe that the government does not work for the good of the people, but only to benefit certain powerful groups, the same survey found.

“The corruption in this country is going to end, and that’s why we have the grand objective of organizing the whole country in making sure that honesty is a way of life and a way of the government,” López Obrador said during his November rally in Mexico City, where supporters repeatedly chanted “President!” and “It’s an honor to be with Obrador” in his presence.

Although recent poll numbers are in López Obrador’s favor, it remains possible that the PRI’s recently named candidate, former Finance Minister José Antonio Meade, could pull out a win. The National Action Party, Mexico’s other major party that held power from 2000 to 2012, is running as part of a “For Mexico in Front” coalition with two center-left parties. The more right-leaning party’s former president, Ricardo Anaya Cortés, is expected to be the coalition’s candidate.

Meade remains an uncontroversial pick as a career official who has led multiple ministries — including energy, foreign affairs, finance and social development — under the administrations of two different political parties.

Meade, who has a Yale University Ph.D. in economics, has also positioned himself as the best equipped to handle the future of the Mexican economy, an argument helped by his time running the finance ministry. This stands in contrast to López Obrador, who has little experience in foreign affairs.

But Meade’s 20-year career under the radar could also serve as a negative, as 70 percent of Mexicans do not know or have an opinion about him, a survey by Mexican newspaper Reforma found last month. López Obrador still leads early polls by double digits, garnering a third of the Mexican vote, while Meade lags behind with 16 percent of the vote in the survey.

“It’s really going to be a test for Meade to see if he’s an effective politician that can get well known in the country,” Shifter said. “But to win Mexico, you’ll have to have the popular punch.”

Doug Palmer contributed to this report.

Original Article

Politico

Related Articles

142 Comments

  1. Whats Going down i am new to this, I stumbled upon this I’ve discovered It positively useful and it has aided me out loads. I’m hoping to give a contribution & help other customers like its aided me. Good job.

  2. Thanks for sharing excellent informations. Your web-site is so cool. I’m impressed by the details that you’ve on this website. It reveals how nicely you understand this subject. Bookmarked this website page, will come back for extra articles. You, my friend, ROCK! I found just the information I already searched all over the place and simply couldn’t come across. What a perfect web-site.

  3. Hi there very nice blog!! Guy .. Excellent .. Wonderful .. I will bookmark your website and take the feeds alsoKI am satisfied to seek out numerous useful information here in the publish, we want develop extra strategies in this regard, thank you for sharing. . . . . .

  4. Thanks for sharing excellent informations. Your site is very cool. I am impressed by the details that you have on this blog. It reveals how nicely you understand this subject. Bookmarked this website page, will come back for more articles. You, my pal, ROCK! I found simply the info I already searched everywhere and just couldn’t come across. What a perfect website.

  5. Thank you for every other great post. The place else may just anybody get that kind of information in such an ideal method of writing? I’ve a presentation subsequent week, and I am on the look for such info.

  6. Howdy I am so excited I found your blog, I really found you by error, while I was looking on Bing for something else, Anyways I am here now and would just like to say thanks for a remarkable post and a all round exciting blog (I also love the theme/design), I don’t have time to browse it all at the minute but I have book-marked it and also added in your RSS feeds, so when I have time I will be back to read more, Please do keep up the awesome work.

  7. Youre so cool! I dont suppose Ive read anything like this before. So good to search out somebody with some authentic thoughts on this subject. realy thank you for beginning this up. this website is something that’s needed on the internet, someone with slightly originality. useful job for bringing one thing new to the web!

  8. After study a few of the blog posts on your website now, and I truly like your way of blogging. I bookmarked it to my bookmark website list and will be checking back soon. Pls check out my web site as well and let me know what you think.

  9. But a smiling visitant here to share the love (:, btw great style and design. “Better by far you should forget and smile than that you should remember and be sad.” by Christina Georgina Rossetti.

  10. Its such as you learn my thoughts! You seem to grasp so much about this, like you wrote the e-book in it or something. I believe that you could do with some to pressure the message home a bit, but other than that, this is excellent blog. An excellent read. I’ll definitely be back.

  11. You could definitely see your enthusiasm within the paintings you write. The sector hopes for even more passionate writers like you who are not afraid to mention how they believe. All the time go after your heart.

  12. Good – I should definitely pronounce, impressed with your web site. I had no trouble navigating through all the tabs as well as related info ended up being truly simple to do to access. I recently found what I hoped for before you know it at all. Reasonably unusual. Is likely to appreciate it for those who add forums or something, web site theme . a tones way for your customer to communicate. Nice task..

  13. Thanks for the sensible critique. Me & my neighbor were just preparing to do some research on this. We got a grab a book from our area library but I think I learned more clear from this post. I’m very glad to see such great information being shared freely out there.

  14. Este site é realmente fascinate. Sempre que acesso eu encontro coisas diferentes Você também vai querer acessar o nosso site e descobrir mais detalhes! informaçõesexclusivas. Venha descobrir mais agora! 🙂

  15. Do you mind if I quote a few of your articles as long as I provide credit and sources back to your site? My blog is in the very same niche as yours and my users would truly benefit from a lot of the information you provide here. Please let me know if this okay with you. Thanks!

  16. me encantei com este site. Pra saber mais detalhes acesse nosso site e descubra mais. Todas as informações contidas são conteúdos relevantes e exclusivos. Tudo que você precisa saber está está lá.

  17. We are a group of volunteers and opening a new scheme in our community. Your web site provided us with valuable info to work on. You’ve done a formidable job and our entire community will be thankful to you.

  18. I don’t even know how I ended up here, but I thought this post was good. I do not know who you are but definitely you’re going to a famous blogger if you aren’t already 😉 Cheers!

  19. Nice post. I learn something more challenging on different blogs everyday. It will always be stimulating to read content from other writers and practice a little something from their store. I’d prefer to use some with the content on my blog whether you don’t mind. Natually I’ll give you a link on your web blog. Thanks for sharing.

  20. Great post. I was checking constantly this weblog and I’m impressed! Extremely useful information particularly the remaining part 🙂 I care for such information a lot. I used to be seeking this particular info for a very lengthy time. Thanks and good luck.

  21. certainly like your web site however you have to check the spelling on several of your posts. Many of them are rife with spelling problems and I to find it very troublesome to inform the truth then again I’ll definitely come again again.

  22. When I originally commented I clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get four emails with the same comment. Is there any way you can remove me from that service? Thanks!

  23. Thanks for another great article. The place else may just anyone get that kind of info in such an ideal manner of writing? I have a presentation next week, and I am at the look for such information.

  24. Thanks for sharing superb informations. Your web site is very cool. I am impressed by the details that you have on this web site. It reveals how nicely you understand this subject. Bookmarked this website page, will come back for more articles. You, my pal, ROCK! I found simply the information I already searched everywhere and just couldn’t come across. What a great web-site.

  25. Thanx for the effort, keep up the good work Great work, I am going to start a small Blog Engine course work using your site I hope you enjoy blogging with the popular BlogEngine.net.Thethoughts you express are really awesome. Hope you will right some more posts.

  26. Youre so cool! I dont suppose Ive learn something like this before. So good to find somebody with some original ideas on this subject. realy thank you for starting this up. this website is something that’s wanted on the net, somebody with a bit originality. helpful job for bringing one thing new to the internet!

  27. Hello there! This post could not be written any better! Reading this post reminds me of my good old room mate! He always kept chatting about this. I will forward this write-up to him. Fairly certain he will have a good read. Thanks for sharing!

  28. Thanks for one’s marvelous posting! I certainly enjoyed reading it, you happen to be a great author.I will be sure to bookmark your blog and definitely will come back down the road. I want to encourage yourself to continue your great posts, have a nice weekend!

  29. I’ve been absent for a while, but now I remember why I used to love this website. Thanks, I will try and check back more frequently. How frequently you update your website?

  30. I’m impressed, I must say. Actually not often do I encounter a blog that’s each educative and entertaining, and let me let you know, you’ve gotten hit the nail on the head. Your idea is outstanding; the difficulty is something that not sufficient people are speaking intelligently about. I am very pleased that I stumbled across this in my seek for one thing referring to this.

  31. Having read this I thought it was very informative. I appreciate you taking the time and effort to put this article together. I once again find myself spending way to much time both reading and commenting. But so what, it was still worth it!

  32. Nice post. I learn something more challenging on different blogs everyday. It will always be stimulating to read content from other writers and practice a little something from their store. I’d prefer to use some with the content on my blog whether you don’t mind. Natually I’ll give you a link on your web blog. Thanks for sharing.

  33. I would like to thank you for the efforts you have put in writing this site. I’m hoping the same high-grade site post from you in the upcoming also. In fact your creative writing skills has encouraged me to get my own web site now. Actually the blogging is spreading its wings fast. Your write up is a good example of it.

  34. I would like to thnkx for the efforts you have put in writing this blog. I am hoping the same high-grade blog post from you in the upcoming as well. In fact your creative writing abilities has inspired me to get my own blog now. Really the blogging is spreading its wings quickly. Your write up is a good example of it.

  35. I do agree with all the ideas you’ve presented in your post. They’re really convincing and will definitely work. Still, the posts are too short for newbies. Could you please extend them a bit from next time? Thanks for the post.

  36. Hey there would you mind letting me know which hosting company you’re utilizing? I’ve loaded your blog in 3 completely different browsers and I must say this blog loads a lot quicker then most. Can you suggest a good web hosting provider at a reasonable price? Kudos, I appreciate it!

  37. Thanks , I’ve recently been looking for information about this subject for ages and yours is the greatest I’ve discovered till now. But, what about the bottom line? Are you sure about the source?

  38. Vielen Dank für die Großen Kurzer Artikel. Ich sind schon studieren dieses Thema für irgendwann . Die Waren und Besonderheiten Sie zeigen, ich war nicht bewusst. Ich wird verfolgend Ihre Blog-Site jetzt und hoffentlich Sie können weit mehr Ansichten und Einsichten.

  39. It¦s really a great and useful piece of info. I¦m satisfied that you simply shared this helpful information with us. Please stay us up to date like this. Thanks for sharing.

  40. Merci pour les beaux rapport . Je étais étude ce chose pour un jour. Les articles et caractéristiques que vous précisez, je n’étais pas attentif . Je serai suivant votre site de blog maintenant et avec un peu de chance vous pouvez en plus pensées et idées.

  41. Hey would you mind stating which blog platform you’re working with? I’m looking to start my own blog in the near future but I’m having a tough time making a decision between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal. The reason I ask is because your layout seems different then most blogs and I’m looking for something completely unique. P.S My apologies for being off-topic but I had to ask!

  42. I like what you guys are up also. Such clever work and reporting! Carry on the superb works guys I’ve incorporated you guys to my blogroll. I think it’ll improve the value of my site :).

  43. When I originally left a comment I seem to have clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now each time a comment is added I receive four emails with the exact same comment. Is there a way you are able to remove me from that service? Cheers!

  44. I’m truly enjoying the design and layout of your site. It’s a very easy on the eyes which makes it much more pleasant for me to come here and visit more often. Did you hire out a designer to create your theme? Fantastic work!

  45. certainly like your website however you have to check the spelling on quite a few of your posts. A number of them are rife with spelling issues and I in finding it very bothersome to tell the reality however I?¦ll surely come again again.

  46. I and also my buddies have already been examining the nice ideas on your website then at once got an awful feeling I never thanked the blog owner for those techniques. Those ladies happened to be glad to read through all of them and have now actually been taking pleasure in them. Many thanks for truly being indeed thoughtful and for getting varieties of fantastic tips most people are really wanting to be aware of. Our own honest apologies for not expressing appreciation to sooner.

  47. An impressive share, I just given this onto a colleague who was doing just a little analysis on this. And he in truth bought me breakfast as a result of I found it for him.. smile. So let me reword that: Thnx for the treat! However yeah Thnkx for spending the time to discuss this, I feel strongly about it and love studying more on this topic. If doable, as you turn into expertise, would you mind updating your blog with extra details? It’s highly useful for me. Big thumb up for this weblog put up!

  48. What¦s Going down i’m new to this, I stumbled upon this I’ve found It positively helpful and it has aided me out loads. I hope to give a contribution & assist different customers like its helped me. Good job.

  49. Just desire to say your article is as surprising. The clarity for your post is simply great and that i could assume you are a professional on this subject. Fine along with your permission let me to clutch your feed to stay updated with coming near near post. Thank you one million and please keep up the rewarding work.

  50. Hey this is kind of of off topic but I was wanting to know if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding know-how so I wanted to get advice from someone with experience. Any help would be enormously appreciated!

  51. I intended to write you this bit of observation in order to give many thanks yet again over the incredible concepts you’ve documented on this website. This is quite pretty open-handed with people like you giving extensively all a lot of people might have marketed for an electronic book to generate some money on their own, mostly since you might well have tried it in the event you decided. Those strategies likewise acted to provide a good way to be certain that the rest have a similar fervor the same as my own to see more and more in respect of this matter. I believe there are thousands of more pleasant sessions ahead for people who take a look at your website.

  52. I cling on to listening to the news lecture about getting boundless online grant applications so I have been looking around for the top site to get one. Could you tell me please, where could i find some?

  53. You really make it appear really easy along with your presentation however I find this matter to be actually one thing that I think I’d by no means understand. It kind of feels too complex and very huge for me. I’m taking a look ahead in your next post, I?¦ll try to get the dangle of it!

  54. I like the valuable information you supply on your articles. I will bookmark your weblog and test once more here frequently. I’m fairly sure I will be informed plenty of new stuff proper right here! Good luck for the following!

  55. Thanks for sharing excellent informations. Your web-site is so cool. I am impressed by the details that you¦ve on this web site. It reveals how nicely you perceive this subject. Bookmarked this website page, will come back for more articles. You, my friend, ROCK! I found simply the information I already searched all over the place and just could not come across. What a great web site.

  56. You really make it seem really easy along with your presentation however I in finding this matter to be really one thing that I believe I would by no means understand. It sort of feels too complex and extremely huge for me. I’m looking ahead on your next post, I’ll attempt to get the hold of it!

  57. I needed to put you a tiny note to be able to say thanks the moment again for your personal gorgeous information you’ve documented in this case. It has been so extremely open-handed of people like you to supply publicly all a few people might have offered for sale for an e-book to help with making some profit for themselves, certainly now that you might have tried it if you decided. The inspiring ideas likewise acted to provide a easy way to know that someone else have the identical keenness the same as my own to learn good deal more around this problem. I am certain there are lots of more pleasurable moments up front for individuals that scan through your blog.

  58. We’re a gaggle of volunteers and starting a new scheme in our community. Your web site offered us with valuable information to work on. You’ve done a formidable activity and our entire neighborhood can be thankful to you.

  59. Together with every little thing that appears to be developing within this specific area, many of your points of view are actually very radical. On the other hand, I am sorry, because I can not subscribe to your entire plan, all be it refreshing none the less. It appears to us that your commentary are actually not entirely validated and in fact you are generally your self not really completely certain of your argument. In any event I did take pleasure in reading through it.

  60. I am really impressed with your writing skills as well as with the layout on your blog. Is this a paid theme or did you customize it yourself? Anyway keep up the nice quality writing, it’s rare to see a great blog like this one today..

  61. Hey would you mind sharing which blog platform you’re using? I’m looking to start my own blog in the near future but I’m having a tough time deciding between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal. The reason I ask is because your design and style seems different then most blogs and I’m looking for something completely unique. P.S My apologies for getting off-topic but I had to ask!

  62. Wow, incredible blog layout! How long have you been blogging for? you made blogging look easy. The overall look of your web site is magnificent, let alone the content!

  63. I’m really enjoying the design and layout of your blog. It’s a very easy on the eyes which makes it much more enjoyable for me to come here and visit more often. Did you hire out a developer to create your theme? Outstanding work!

  64. Unquestionably believe that which you said. Your favorite reason appeared to be at the internet the easiest thing to be aware of. I say to you, I certainly get irked even as people consider issues that they plainly don’t recognize about. You managed to hit the nail upon the top and defined out the whole thing without having side-effects , people can take a signal. Will probably be again to get more. Thanks

  65. My programmer is trying to persuade me to move to .net from PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the costs. But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using WordPress on several websites for about a year and am nervous about switching to another platform. I have heard excellent things about blogengine.net. Is there a way I can transfer all my wordpress content into it? Any kind of help would be greatly appreciated!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Back to top button