Trade

Where Brexit will hurt most in Europe

The impact of Brexit will vary considerably across the European Union, with some regions bracing for severe costs and others less exposed.

That’s the message from data collected by the EU’s Committee of the Regions on the predicted local economic and cultural fallout of the U.K.’s departure from the bloc. The document, made up of questionnaire responses submitted by local officials and obtained by POLITICO, reveals a detailed and diverse patchwork.

The findings is sure to bolster the view among Brexiteers that there may be divisions on the EU side that can be exploited to Britain’s advantage in Phase 2 of the negotiations, which are due to start within weeks. So far, the EU has demonstrated rock-solid unity over the three divorce issues of citizens’ rights, the Brexit bill and the Northern Irish border. But that may be harder to sustain when talks touch on issues for which countries (and regions within countries) have differing interests.

EU leaders are aware of the danger. French President Emmanuel Macron warned on Friday that the EU27 must present a “united front” or risk an outcome “unfavorable to the European Union and thus to each one of us.”

“It is highly significant that other EU member states’ authorities are beginning to engage with the consequences of a no-deal Brexit because it is something that should concern them greatly,” said prominent Tory Brexiteer Bernard Jenkin. “I think the pressure is mounting on the EU negotiators to deliver a sensible deal which disrupts as little as possible.”

A study published last month led by researchers at Erasmus University Rotterdam found that regions in Ireland face the most severe Brexit consequences.

The 72-page document compiled for the EU’s assembly of regional and local representatives includes submissions from 42 regions, municipalities, provinces and national delegations. Among the biggest concerns are the impact of Brexit on future trade, agriculture, fisheries, citizens returning from the U.K. and cuts to the EU budget post Brexit.

The questionnaire was sent to the organization’s 350 members at the end of September. An EU official explained that the committee has not “verified the veracity of the figures, that task has been left to the administrations that submitted them.”

A study published last month led by researchers at Erasmus University Rotterdam found that regions in Ireland face the most severe Brexit consequences, with potential economic exposure on par with the impact on regions of the U.K. that are currently most dependent on ties to the EU. Their analysis predicts that countries closest to the U.K. — such as Belgium and the Netherlands, as well as those with high volumes of trade such as Germany and France — will suffer the biggest economic impact from Brexit.

The submissions to the Committee of the Regions bear this out, but paint a more complex picture, with localities across the Continent voicing worries about the impact of Brexit. Here are some of the main local impacts:

Trade and agriculture

Trade is a concern for the great majority of local authorities across Europe who responded to the survey. The German city of Bremen stressed that the U.K is its third-largest trade partner while Berlin pointed out that the U.K. is its fifth-largest. For Cyprus, “Britain is the second trading partner … as a whole and the first one in terms of services, investment and shipping.” And while Polish regions made clear their biggest concern is a reduction of the EU budget, the province of Lublin, southeast of Warsaw, is also worried about reduced exports, “especially agricultural and agri-food products.”

Paul Lindquist, the Swedish official who responded on behalf of Stockholm, warns that “the U.K is the third largest foreign investor in Sweden [around €31 billion in 2014] … and the seventh largest Swedish investment market.” And in Murcia, in the southeast of Spain, the U.K. is the No. 2 destination for exports (10.4 percent of total), “with the agri-food industry being the most important, sending 75 percent of its exports to the U.K.,” two local officials write.

In the Netherlands, central regions are most concerned. The Dutch delegation quotes research by the Dutch bank ING, released in May last year, showing a top 10 of the most affected regions: No. 1 is the Utrecht province where 8.5 percent of exports go to Britain. The province of Groningen in the north is concerned because of its reliance on trade in natural gas with the U.K. Another Dutch province, Drenthe — where important biochemistry and the synthetic fibre industries are concentrated in the city of Emmen — sees a silver lining in the fact that the British chemical industry exports mainly to the EU. That means companies in Emmen “can take advantage of the deteriorating marketing position of British competitors,” its submission reads.

A post-Brexit trade deal is seen by the Flanders region of Belgium as key: “A hard Brexit will lead to 42,000 job losses, whereas a trade agreement could limit these to 10,000 jobs,” according to local official Karl Vanlouwe. The U.K is the “fourth export market for Flanders with €27.66 billion” and “the Flemish road transport sector … will be very hard hit due to changes in customs, free movement of people, potentially deviating rules on health and safety, etc,” the submission reads.

Ireland is among the most concerned, because of its extensive and deep economic links to the U.K. The official who responded on behalf of the Irish delegation, Michael Brennan, lists the maritime and agri-food sectors as areas of concern, as well as energy links to the U.K.

“Ireland imports 89 percent of its oil products and 93 percent of its gas from the U.K.,” he writes. Since 2007 there has been a single electricity market for the whole island and “post Brexit this single market will be affected and Irish energy security may be weakened.”

The Irish counties covered by the Northern & Western Regional Assembly, and which share a border with Northern Ireland, are “the most exposed region to Brexit effects due to its high volume of cross-border trade and relative deficits in transport infrastructure (international airports, high-speed motorway, rail services and ports) and digital services,” the submission reads.

The Hauts-de-France region in the north of that country (where President Emmanuel Macron was born) also has strong economic ties to the U.K. Its official, François Decoster, stresses that “in the automotive sector, there are major concerns regarding future relations with the U.K, particularly on the part of the car maker Toyota, which operates in the region. For example, 13 percent of Yaris exports in 2016 went to the U.K.”

Aerial view of Calais and its ferry port | Philippe Huguen/AFP via Getty Images

There are also concerns about the port of Calais. If the U.K. leaves the single market and customs union — as is the government’s stated aim — “the police/customs authorities will have to treat the U.K. like any other third country, for example by applying the common customs tariff to goods originating in the U.K,” the submission reads. “This could have a negative impact on the fluidity of trade flows between the ports of Calais and Dover,” it warns.

Fishing

The prospect of the U.K. leaving the EU’s Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) and potentially blocking access to the waters in its Exclusive Economic Zone — the area around its shores where it will regain control of fishing rights — is causing anxiety in several coastal communities across Europe.

The French département of Finistère, in Brittany, is bracing itself for a hit to its fishermen. “The end of the access to the British fishing areas to the Finistère fishing boats is a real economic risk, 50 percent of the fishing activity in Brittany region … is made inside the British Exclusive Economic Zone,” warned local official Nathalie Sarrabezolles.

“Wholesaling and processing of sea products provides 5,000 jobs in 150 companies. Thus significant effects are to be expected in the case of a hard Brexit” — François Decoster

Hauts-de-France is home to France’s main fishing port, Boulogne-Calais, which the report describes as the main European center for the treatment and processing of sea products. “Along the region’s coastline nearly 170 small-scale and deep-sea fishing businesses produce a turnover of close to €80 million with a fleet of around 190 vessels, providing nearly 900 on-board jobs,” writes Decoster.

“Wholesaling and processing of sea products provides 5,000 jobs in 150 companies. Thus significant effects are to be expected in the case of a hard Brexit,” he adds. The official warns that if the U.K. withdraws from the CFP, the whole thing may “unravel.”

Regions of the Netherlands are also potentially heavily impacted by losing access to U.K. waters. In the central Dutch province of Flevoland, the coastal town of Urk (which sports a fish on its coat of arms), is concerned that the fishing and fish processing industries will be badly hit (40 percent of its economic activity is based on fishing). The provinces of Flevoland and Overijssel predict a potential drop of 60 percent in fishing business.

People

There are a range of concerns across Europe linked to changes in the movement of people as a result of Brexit, including managing migration, coping with reduced tourism and dealing with citizens returning home from the U.K.

Migration is mainly a problem for the region of Calais, from where many migrants try to reach the U.K. The eventual Brexit settlement will be “relevant to the management of migration flows … into Calais and more generally the issue of the potential renegotiation of the bilateral Le Touquet Agreement” between the U.K. and France that allows British border police to operate in Calais, according to the Hauts-de-France submission.

Migration is mainly a problem for the region of Calais | Philippe Huguen/AFP via Getty Images

The Spanish region of Andalusia, close to Gibraltar, is concerned about the large numbers of its citizens who work in the British territory (which has a special status in the Brexit talks). According to its submission, “58.7 percent of Spanish workers in Gibraltar will be affected.” Fears that Brexit will affect tourism are voiced by Spanish regions such the Balearic Islands, including Mallorca, a popular destination for British package holidays. There is similar anxiety from local authorities in Greece and Cyprus.

For Prešov, the Slovak region in the east of the country, citizens returning home from the U.K. will present potential difficulties. “It can cause the increase of the unemployment rate in Prešov,” writes official Andrea Turčanová. In Portugal, Mário Sérgio Quaresma Marques, the official in charge for Madeira, an archipelago off the Moroccan cost, warns that a large-scale return of citizens “would result in an immediate and significant increase in unemployment in the region (!), one that already has a high level of unemployment.” (The exclamation mark is in the original text.)

Polish regions, though, have a different view. “The return of Polish citizens to the region can be positive and thus provide a greater number of emerging companies and, of course, greater regional consumption,” writes Slawomir Sosnowski, the Polish official who filled out the report for Lublin province. The country is hoping to entice young and talented workers home to boost its economy.

Annabelle Dickson contributed reporting.

Original Article

Politico

Related Articles

75 Comments

  1. Letters of credit history (LCs) are Just about the most safe instruments accessible to Worldwide traders. An LC is often a commitment by a lender on behalf of the buyer that payment are going to be created into the exporter, offered the conditions and terms stated in the LC are already satisfied, as verified through the presentation of all demanded files.노제휴웹하드

  2. I savour, result in I found exactly what I used to be taking
    a look for. You’ve ended my 4 day lengthy hunt! God Bless you man. Have a nice day.
    Bye

  3. [8] Postdated checks, nonetheless, aren’t thought of payment when sent.[nine] Typically, payments by charge card take result at the point in the sale and never each time a payer is billed by the credit card business or when the payer pays the charge card firm’s Monthly bill.[10] A business that experiences on an accrual foundation, would report income from the calendar year of sale even though payment can be received inside a subsequent 12 months.소액결제 정책미납

  4. Which means When the instrument is subsequently dishonoured, the financial debt revives, and the creditor may sue either about the instrument or on the first financial debt. The events may perhaps, having said that, concur that acceptance of the negotiable instrument shall function being an complete payment, in which case, if the instrument is dishonoured, the creditor may well sue to the instrument but not on the initial credit card debt. A payment could be made by the mere transfer of figures in an account without any dollars changing hands. If goods are acknowledged in gratification of the financial debt, this constitutes payment.Examine This Report on p2p

  5. magnificent submit, very informative. I’m wondering why the other experts of this sector don’t notice this. You should proceed your writing. I’m confident, you’ve a great readers’ base already!

  6. Which means that In the event the instrument is subsequently dishonoured, the personal debt revives, as well as the creditor might sue either to the instrument or on the first debt. The parties may possibly, nonetheless, agree that acceptance of a negotiable instrument shall operate as an complete payment, by which circumstance, When the instrument is dishonoured, the creditor may possibly sue over the instrument but not on the first credit card debt. A payment can be made by the mere transfer of figures in an account with none revenue transforming fingers. If goods are recognized in satisfaction of the credit card debt, this constitutes payment.암호화폐거래소추천

  7. Speech overs could be ideal for timid individuals. Maybe you have your first movie as a consequence of concern with becoming on digital camera. You can easily flaunt the product and utilize a voice over. Just document what you’re stating after which place it along with your video video clips.

  8. Look for value special discounts on cheap movie to present the kids. Several video rental businesses are struggling making it. You could find one close by and obtain some terrific movie discounts if you discover out one that is shutting. Might need some washing, though quite often the imdb movie will be in respectable condition.

  9. Mother and father would be wise to confirm the ESRB status on movies. Some box office may possibly appear far more innocent than they basically are. Check both the game’s rating along with the reasons for the status prior to buying.

  10. Look at having your young children a games console as an alternative to allowing them to play on the PC. Consoles allow you to manage their level of privacy, security configurations, whereas children can much more very easily bypass these kinds of constraints over a pc. They may have a far more guarded experience with a dedicated unit process.

  11. The single thing it provides going for it is it is very affordable, even though PS2 isn’t new. You can buy Jujutsu Kaisen 0 very cheap for a small fraction of the PS2. There are plenty of utilized Jujutsu Kaisen 0 movie in the industry for this method.

  12. Movie Jujutsu Kaisen 0 movie is wildly popular with time. It’s a wonderful way to unwind and loosen up.There are numerous entertaining Jujutsu Kaisen 0 movie to suit every preference. This short article will demonstrate some tips and tricks to get more from your online video Jujutsu Kaisen 0 expertise.

  13. The article here has given you excellent tips on where to start your next hobby adventure. The rest depends on you. Get the whole family to be linked to your hobby and remember what you’ve read here to have success with what you may do.

  14. 515141 403534An attention-grabbing dialogue is worth comment. I believe that its very best to write extra on this topic, it wont be a taboo topic nonetheless generally individuals are not sufficient to speak on such topics. To the next. Cheers 681724

  15. wonderful submit, very informative. I’m wondering why the other experts of this sector don’t understand this. You should continue your writing. I am confident, you’ve a huge readers’ base already!

  16. 614365 283336I dont feel Ive read anything like this before. So very good to find somebody with some original thoughts on this topic. thank for starting this up. This website is something that is necessary on the web, someone with slightly originality. Excellent job for bringing something new to the internet! 591803

  17. If you’re always traveling, consider starting a selection of some item from your travels to create back with you once the trips are performed. You could collect pottery from special places, bottles of wine, postcards as well as wine. Despite what’s inside your collection, you will have a great group of reminders from your journeys.

  18. The article here has given you excellent recommendations on how to start your upcoming hobby adventure. The others is up to you. Get the whole family to become included in your hobby and take into account what you’ve read here to obtain success with anything you do.

  19. Fishing is definitely a great hobby. Fishing is actually Minions: The Rise of Gru movie that can never vanish entirely. It is something that has been around since primitive times. You need patience until you land the next big fish. It is possible to cook the fish for food or perhaps permit it to back into the water.

  20. Share the hobby you do with other people. It’s random things about people who which will make your way of life stand out. Your hobby can put a perfect ability to take pleasure in the company of others.Allow other folks to look at your collections or the things you make. Show others what you’re included in. You can create new people and perhaps learn some things you didn’t know.

  21. My brother suggested I could possibly like this web site. He was entirely correct. This post genuinely produced my day. You can not envision just how much time I had spent for this information and facts! Thanks!

  22. Hobbies will help you look for a great balance between fun and lower your stress levels. Both these are essential in life, so enjoy yourself along with your hobby.

  23. Be politically energetic for your pooch! Look for neighborhood regulations that individuals are attempting to move to limit how puppy owners have to act and what their rights are. This is simply motivated by some terrible apples or possibly a specific dog breed. You ought to talk out being a excellent pet owner, and talk with officials in your town.

  24. “Dan kenapa kamu malah bau alkohol? Apakah tadi kamu pergi minum-minum? Ya Tuhan, kamu tampak berantakan sekali. Sana pergi ganti baju.” Ibu hanya mengernyitkan hidungnya dan menyuruhku masuk.

  25. Among the best methods that you could go green and cut Bodies Bodies Bodies fees is as simple as dressing warmly. An easy sweater offers 2 degrees of more warmness, whilst a huge a single gives 4. You don’t should be frosty in your own home, so place on a sweater and boost your cost savings.

  26. There are many basic changes you can make to minimize house Bodies Bodies Bodies yahoo consumption, which include putting in Bodies Bodies Bodies yahoo-efficient light bulbs as well as a programmable thermostat, and also modifying your furnace filtration system frequently. You can also generate an illustration for people in your group, to allow them to join you in going green! Continue to keep the following tips under consideration and initiate placing those to use without delay.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

Back to top button