Science

Higher temperatures linked to EU asylum figures

Sharp increases in the numbers of those seeking asylum in the European Union have been linked to higher temperatures in agricultural regions of the world.

Researchers found that when temperatures deviated from 20C in food growing areas of 103 countries, more people sought refuge abroad.

Around 660,000 extra applicants would be expected each year by 2100, the authors say, if current temperature trends continue.

The study appears in Science journal.

Between 2000 and 2014, around 350,000 people applied for asylum in the European Union every year. The majority came from countries such as Afghanistan and Iraq.

In this study, researchers examine these numbers and assess the role of what they call "weather shocks" in pushing people to seek asylum. The authors find that the numbers increase if the temperatures in the 103 countries they looked at were too warm or too cold. Warmer temperatures, defined as being above 20C, were seen as having a bigger impact.

The researchers found "a highly statistically significant relationship" between the number of asylum applications logged by the EU and average temperatures in the maize growing regions in countries like Pakistan.

The authors believe that too much heat especially, depresses yields, damages national GDP and increases aggressive behaviours. The study also found that the weather-induced spikes in applications translated into roughly three times higher acceptance rates by the EU in the two years following an event.

"I feel very confident that what we discovered for 2000-2014 is a causal relationship between weather and asylum applications," lead author Prof Wolfram Schlenker from Columbia University told BBC News.

"Some of these 103 countries in a given year, are shocked warmer, some are shocked colder. It's like a random assignment and it ensures that those weather shocks are uncorrelated with other factors – so we are not just capturing a correlation, we really are capturing a causal relationship, I feel pretty confident on that, given the randomness of weather."

Looking ahead to the rest of this century, the authors predict that if temperature rises linked to climate change are limited to 1.8C above pre-industrial levels, then applications would increase by 28%. However if carbon emissions continue at their present rate and temperatures rise by up to 4.8C, then applications could rise by 188%, meaning an extra 660,000 seeking refuge each year.

However Prof Schlenker says that he was far less confident about the future impacts of rising temperatures and asylum numbers in the EU.

"We basically have to assume that the relationship we uncovered between 2000 and 2014 is going to remain unchanged for the next 80 years," he said.

"There are many reasons for why it could go either way. We could start adapting to warmer temperatures, so the impacts would be less, but if you shock people every year with the same thing, it could be much worse. We could be under or overestimating the effects."

The study follows on from other research that found a connection between conflict and temperature. A 2015 study showed that climate change made drought in Syria two to three times more likely, and that this was a catalyst for the 2011 uprising. The author of that research says the new study linking asylum to temperatures is an important step.

"It's unclear how much more warming will occur between now and the end of the century, but the study clearly demonstrates just how much climate change acts as a threat multiplier," said Colin Kelley, a climate scientists at Columbia.

"Wealthier countries can expect to feel the direct and indirect effects of weather shocks from manmade climate change in poorer, less resilient countries."

Follow Matt on Twitter @mattmcgrathbbc.

Original Article

BBC

The post Higher temperatures linked to EU asylum figures appeared first on News Wire Now.

Related Articles

587 Comments

  1. Unquestionably believe that which you stated.
    Your favorite reason appeared to be on the internet the simplest thing to
    be aware of. I say to you, I definitely get irked while
    people consider worries that they plainly do not know about.
    You managed to hit the nail upon the top and also defined out the whole thing without
    having side-effects , people could take a signal.
    Will probably be back to get more. Thanks

  2. [url=http://pillcialis.online/]can you buy cialis online in australia[/url] [url=http://cheapviagrapharm.online/]viagra tablet price in india[/url] [url=http://ivermectinactive.online/]ivermectin 3mg tab[/url] [url=http://viagragf.online/]best place to buy viagra online[/url]

  3. obviously like your web-site but you have to test the spelling on several of
    your posts. Many of them are rife with spelling problems
    and I in finding it very troublesome to tell the reality nevertheless I will
    surely come again again.

  4. [url=http://sildenafilsale.online/]100mg sildenafil 30 tablets price[/url] [url=http://pharmacylong.online/]canadian 24 hour pharmacy[/url] [url=http://unocialis.online/]cialis 10mg online india[/url]

  5. Thank you a bunch for sharing this with all of us you really understand what you’re talking about!
    Bookmarked. Please additionally discuss with my web site =).
    We could have a link trade contract among us

  6. Hi, i think that i saw you visited my website thus i came to “return the favor”.I’m trying to find things
    to improve my website!I suppose its ok to use a few of
    your ideas!!

  7. Have you ever considered about including a little bit more than just your articles?

    I mean, what you say is valuable and all.
    But think about if you added some great visuals or videos
    to give your posts more, “pop”! Your content is excellent but
    with images and videos, this site could definitely be one of the very best in its
    niche. Superb blog!

  8. [url=http://safepharmx.com/]nolvadex online canada[/url] [url=http://onlinesalepills.com/]generic sildalis[/url] [url=http://tadalafilxz.com/]tadalafil india[/url] [url=http://hottadalafil.com/]cialis for daily use 5mg[/url] [url=http://buytadalafilgen.com/]tadalafil 40 mg for sale[/url]

  9. Just want to say your article is as surprising.
    The clearness in your post is simply great and i can assume
    you’re an expert on this subject. Well with your permission allow me to grab your
    RSS feed to keep up to date with forthcoming post. Thanks a million and please keep up the enjoyable work.

  10. Today, I went to the beach with my children. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She put the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is totally off topic but I had to tell someone!|

  11. Hi there just wanted to give you a brief heads up and let you know a few of the pictures aren’t loading correctly. I’m not sure why but I think its a linking issue. I’ve tried it in two different web browsers and both show the same outcome.|

  12. It’s a shame you don’t have a donate button! I’d certainly donate to this brilliant blog! I guess for now i’ll settle for bookmarking and adding your RSS feed to my Google account. I look forward to fresh updates and will share this website with my Facebook group. Chat soon!|

  13. Pretty nice post. I just stumbled upon your weblog and wished to say that I’ve really enjoyed browsing your blog posts. In any case I’ll be subscribing to your feed and I hope you write again soon!|

  14. Wow that was strange. I just wrote an really long comment but after I clicked submit my comment didn’t appear. Grrrr… well I’m not writing all that over again. Regardless, just wanted to say superb blog!|

  15. My partner and I absolutely love your blog and
    find many of your post’s to be exactly what I’m looking for.
    Does one offer guest writers to write content for you
    personally? I wouldn’t mind composing a post or elaborating
    on a number of the subjects you write with regards to here.
    Again, awesome site!

  16. Hey there I am so glad I found your blog, I really found you by mistake, while I was browsing on Bing for something else, Nonetheless I am here now and would just like to say thanks a lot for a remarkable post and a all round thrilling blog (I also love the theme/design), I don’t have time to read through it all at the moment but I have bookmarked it and also added in your RSS feeds, so when I have time I will be back to read a great deal more, Please do keep up the great b.|

  17. Hi would you mind stating which blog platform you’re working with? I’m looking to start my own blog soon but I’m having a difficult time choosing between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal. The reason I ask is because your design seems different then most blogs and I’m looking for something unique. P.S Apologies for getting off-topic but I had to ask!|

  18. An impressive share! I’ve just forwarded this onto a coworker who was
    doing a little homework on this. And he in fact bought
    me breakfast simply because I stumbled upon it for him… lol.

    So allow me to reword this…. Thanks for the meal!!
    But yeah, thanks for spending time to discuss this topic here on your internet site.

  19. Hmm is anyone else encountering problems with the pictures on this blog loading? I’m trying to determine if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any feed-back would be greatly appreciated.|

  20. Do you mind if I quote a couple of your posts as long as I provide credit and sources back to your website? My blog site is in the exact same niche as yours and my users would truly benefit from some of the information you present here. Please let me know if this okay with you. Regards!|

  21. I just like the helpful information you provide in your articles. I will bookmark your blog and check again here frequently. I am relatively sure I’ll be told many new stuff right here! Good luck for the next!|

  22. Simply desire to say your article is as amazing. The clearness in your post is simply nice and i could assume you are an expert on this subject. Fine with your permission let me to grab your RSS feed to keep updated with forthcoming post. Thanks a million and please keep up the enjoyable work.|

  23. Good day! I know this is kind of off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you using for this website? I’m getting fed up of WordPress because I’ve had problems with hackers and I’m looking at alternatives for another platform. I would be fantastic if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.|

  24. You can definitely see your enthusiasm in the article you write. The arena hopes for more passionate writers like you who aren’t afraid to say how they believe. At all times follow your heart.|

  25. Hi there, simply was alert to your blog thru Google, and located that it’s truly informative. I am going to be careful for brussels. I will appreciate if you happen to continue this in future. Lots of other folks might be benefited from your writing. Cheers!|

  26. My partner and I absolutely love your blog and find nearly all of your post’s to be precisely what I’m looking for. Does one offer guest writers to write content to suit your needs? I wouldn’t mind composing a post or elaborating on many of the subjects you write concerning here. Again, awesome site!|

  27. I am extremely impressed with your writing skills as well as with the layout on your blog. Is this a paid theme or did you modify it yourself? Anyway keep up the excellent quality writing, it is rare to see a nice blog like this one today.|

  28. An impressive share! I’ve just forwarded this onto a coworker who was doing a little research on this. And he in fact bought me lunch because I stumbled upon it for him… lol. So allow me to reword this…. Thank YOU for the meal!! But yeah, thanks for spending time to discuss this subject here on your internet site.|

  29. I loved as much as you’ll receive carried out right here. The sketch is tasteful, your authored subject matter stylish. nonetheless, you command get bought an nervousness over that you wish be delivering the following. unwell unquestionably come more formerly again as exactly the same nearly very often inside case you shield this increase.|

  30. Greetings I am so thrilled I found your website, I really found you by accident, while I was searching on Digg for something else, Regardless I am here now and would just like to say thanks a lot for a fantastic post and a all round entertaining blog (I also love the theme/design), I don’t have time to look over it all at the minute but I have book-marked it and also included your RSS feeds, so when I have time I will be back to read much more, Please do keep up the superb work.|

  31. Custom thesis statement writing website usa [url=https://www.wattpad.com/user/essaypro-com]EssayPro[/url]

    UYhjhgTDkJHVy

  32. I love your blog.. very nice colors & theme. Did you design this website yourself or did you hire someone to do it for you? Plz respond as I’m looking to construct my own blog and would like to find out where u got this from. cheers|

  33. I’m not sure why but this website is loading extremely slow for me. Is anyone else having this issue or is it a problem on my end? I’ll check back later on and see if the problem still exists.|

  34. Greetings from California! I’m bored at work so I decided to browse your site on my iphone during lunch break. I love the knowledge you present here and can’t wait to take a look when I get home. I’m shocked at how quick your blog loaded on my mobile .. I’m not even using WIFI, just 3G .. Anyhow, fantastic site!|

  35. Persuasive essay on death penalty [url=https://xypid.win/story.php?title=not-known-factual-statements-about-essaypro-com#discuss]EssayPro[/url]

    UYhjhgTDkJHVy

  36. We’re a group of volunteers and starting a brand new scheme in our community. Your web site provided us with valuable information to work on. You’ve performed a formidable job and our entire community will be thankful to you.|

  37. Hello there, I discovered your blog by way of Google at the same time as searching for a comparable subject, your web site came up, it appears great. I’ve bookmarked it in my google bookmarks.

  38. I am extremely inspired together with your writing abilities as neatly as with the structure to your blog. Is this a paid topic or did you modify it yourself? Either way keep up the excellent high quality writing, it is rare to peer a nice weblog like this one today..|

  39. Pretty great post. I just stumbled upon your weblog and wished to say that I have truly loved browsing your blog posts. In any case I’ll be subscribing on your feed and I am hoping you write once more soon!|