Science

New approach promises early warnings of soggy summers

Researchers in the UK have developed a method of improving the long range accuracy of summer weather in the UK and Europe.

The scientists found a connection between sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic in March and April and the subsequent summer's rain or shine.

The researchers say the new method may benefit agriculture, tourism and construction.

The study has been published in the journal PNAS.

Scientific effort to improve longer term forecasts have been focussed on winter weather patterns, which can pose a sizeable threat to humans and the environment. Developing better seasonal forecasts for the summer has lagged significantly behind.

Now researchers at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) at the University of Reading have found that springtime temperature anomalies in the north Atlantic are connected to the circulation of the atmospheric and the position of the jet stream over Europe in the following July and August.

"We found a strong link between sea surface temperatures east of Newfoundland during the spring and the position of the jet stream and the weather in the UK," said lead author Dr Albert Osso from the University of Reading.

"We found that there is a predictability."

The researchers believe the temperature anomalies in the sea change what is termed the meridional gradient and the position of the jet stream is strongly influenced by this factor.

"The jet stream gives the direction of the storms that cross the Atlantic and affect Europe and the UK," said Dr Osso.

"What we have seen is that when temperatures are warmer than normal in this area of the ocean, the storms basically move far north and they miss the UK, not all of them, but on average most of the storms are going to miss."

The scientists say that their findings mean that there is considerable potential to improve the seasonal forecast – with important implications for many sectors.

"This is an exciting finding. It shows that some aspects of summer weather in the UK appear to be much more predictable, many months ahead, than was previously thought," said Professor Rowan Sutton, from the University of Reading, and a co-author of the research.

"Farmers could potentially make more informed decisions on planting and harvesting. Shops could have more information to plan their stocks of sun cream or wellies. Forecasters still won't be able to tell you in May if an August bank holiday barbecue is a good idea or not, but they may be able to say if the summer is likely to be wetter or drier than average, with much more accuracy."

In the study, the scientists found that the rainfall in Europe can be predicted several months ahead with a correlation skill of 0.56, where 0 would be pure chance and 1 would be perfect prediction every time. The researchers believe that their new process could be a big help to weather forecasters,

"I think it could become a standard procedure and I think it can help to improve the numerical forecast," said Dr Osso.

"Knowing that these connections exist in observations, the forecasters can improve their models to reproduce these links and then get a better numerical forecast, not just a statistical one. "

Follow Matt on Twitter @mattmcgrathbbc.

Original Article

BBC

The post New approach promises early warnings of soggy summers appeared first on News Wire Now.

Related Articles

10 Comments

  1. There are lots of totally free dating sites readily available on the net, however a lot of these dating sites are for dating grownups
    only. If you are wanting to satisfy a new friend,
    a unique a person, and even begin a partnership with a individual from this website, then the most
    effective choice for you is a totally free grown-up dating web cam site.
    This site will allow you to watch thousands of profiles in a issue of
    mins without paying any kind of fee in any way.
    You will be familiar with even more regarding that
    private along with what they such as and don’t like.

    Lots of individuals have actually been able to meet
    women from these sorts of camera dating websites
    with success. Since they have had a pal
    of theirs who also had a free membership, the main factor behind
    this is. Once you understand a person that has a cam account,
    you ought to ask if you can join. Generally they will
    certainly be delighted to allow you, although there are some that will ask you
    to pay a cost. They usually have a subscription cost which is normally very low-cost.

    These on the internet dating websites are extremely simple
    to locate. All you need to do is carry
    out a straightforward search using your favorite online search
    engine. You will quickly find that there are lots of these
    totally free cam dating websites available. All you
    need to do is authorize up for one and also start browsing.

    Free cam dating sites

  2. Hi, i read your blog from time to time and i own a similar one and i was just
    wondering if you get a lot of spam responses?
    If so how do you stop it, any plugin or anything you can suggest?

    I get so much lately it’s driving me crazy
    so any assistance is very much appreciated.

  3. Thanks for your marvelous posting! I truly enjoyed reading it, you might be a great author.
    I will be sure to bookmark your blog and definitely will come back sometime soon. I
    want to encourage continue your great posts, have
    a nice day!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Back to top button